Sep 23 2026 12:25 AM EST

Alphamin Records Q2 EBITDA as Tin Prices Climb, Costs Rise

Alphamin Resources Corp. (TSXV:AFM) reported a record US$167 million EBITDA for the second quarter of 2026, up 6 % from the prior quarter, as tin prices rose 5 % and production remained on target. The results prompted the shares to trade around US$1.00, near the top of their 52‑week range, and led analysts to revisit the company’s valuation in a market where tin supply is tightening.

The quarter saw contained tin output of 5,013 t, matching the annual guidance of 20,000 t and delivering a four‑quarter rolling total of 20,000 t. Average tin price increased from US$49,278/t in Q1 to US$51,957/t in Q2, with spot levels around US$53,000/t in July. Processing recoveries slipped to 72.8 %, down 2 percentage points, reflecting higher metal‑sulphide interference. All‑in sustaining cost (AISC) rose 6 % to US$19,043/t, driven by higher off‑mine costs and rising diesel prices.

Operating Performance and Cash Position

Cash and equivalents rose sharply, with net cash of US$183 million at the end of March 2026, up from US$56 million at the end of 2025. Total debt remained modest at US$39.96 million, supporting a net‑cash balance that underpins the company’s dividend policy – a FY 2025 dividend of CAD 0.13 per share, equivalent to roughly US$122 million, was declared in April 2026. The strong cash generation is reflected in the trailing‑12‑month EBITDA of US$514 million and net income of US$220 million.

Macro and Sector Drivers

Tin prices have been buoyed by a structural deficit of roughly 40,000 tpa projected to 2030, as aging mines close and demand from electric‑vehicle batteries, renewable‑energy projects, and electronics rises. Supply constraints from Indonesia and Myanmar have further supported price strength. The Bisie mine, hosting some of the world’s highest‑grade tin deposits (~3 % grade), gives Alphamin a cost advantage in this environment.

Exploration Update and Growth Outlook

The Q2 update highlighted continued drilling at Mpama North (1,893 m drilled, three holes completed) and Mpama South (3,653.7 m drilled, five holes completed). Visible cassiterite intersected several holes at Mpama South, suggesting potential resource expansion. Management has signaled that successful development of these projects could lift output by up to 50 % once Mpama South reaches full production, extending the life‑of‑mine profile beyond 2038.

Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

Alphamin’s low‑cost profile, reinforced by an off‑take agreement with Gerald Metals that reduced marketing fees by roughly 60 % and lowered AISC by 4 % in Q4 2024, supports its dividend yield of approximately 6.5 % in 2026. The company intends to decide on an FY 2026 interim dividend in Q4 2026, after the upcoming earnings release scheduled for 10 Nov 2026.

Risks and Uncertainties

Key risks include continued volatility in tin prices, which can swing EBITDA and margins; rising diesel and fuel costs that could further lift AISC; geopolitical instability in the DRC, where past rebel activity and the recent Ebola outbreak in neighboring Ituri province have required heightened security and hygiene protocols; and the need for successful resource conversion at Mpama North and South to sustain long‑term production growth.

Analysts remain split between Hold and Buy, with price targets ranging from CAD 2.50 to CAD 4.44, reflecting the balance between the company’s strong cash position, dividend yield, and exposure to commodity‑price swings. Investors will be watching the upcoming Q3 results and the progress of the Mpama South expansion for further clues on earnings sustainability.